Options traders like to say that there are strategies that can profit if a stock rises, falls, or goes nowhere at all. There’s a bit of hyperbole in that, of course, as trades that cannot lose money in any scenario are an “arbitrage” (riskless) and, therefore, are as rare as hens’ teeth. However, if we can find situations where we believe a stock is likely to be somewhat rangebound, some trades set up well for that. It is unlikely to rocket higher or plummet lower — a reasonably stable and mature business, therefore — with elevated options premiums to sell and, hopefully, other options to purchase as a reasonably priced hedge. Crown Holdings (CCK) , which reports earnings next week, may have the set-up we’re looking for. Crown is a global leader in designing, manufacturing, and selling consumer goods packaging products. The company is primarily known for its metal packaging solutions, such as beverage cans, food cans, aerosol containers, and other specialty packaging. Demand for sustainable and recyclable packaging drives growth in the beverage can market, a significant segment for Crown Holdings. As consumers and companies seek eco-friendly alternatives to plastic, metal cans have become a preferred option due to their recyclability. While the premiumization trend in the beverage industry, including craft beers and specialty drinks, could drive demand for specialty cans, a market where Crown Holdings has a strong position, the prices of aluminum and steel, critical materials for Crown Holdings’ products, can be volatile. Fluctuations in these costs can impact the company’s profit margins, and the metal packaging industry is competitive, with several large players like Ball Corporation. CCK YTD mountain Crown Holdings, YTD The company will report its Q3 earnings late next week. On the plus side, the sell side likes the company: 12 buys, 5 holds, and no sells among the 17 analysts I see who have recommendations for the second half of this year, with an average analyst price target a relatively modest 11% higher than Wednesday’s closing price. In the street’s view, Crown Holdings is a reasonable business at a reasonable valuation (19 price-earnings ratio). The trade “Reasonable” isn’t the most exciting word in the investment business, and if we were simply trading the stock, this might not bubble up to the top of the buy list. What intrigues me is that premiums for mid- to longer-dated options are pretty cheap. Three-month implied volatility is almost one standard deviation below average and less than four percent above the recent five-year low. The left side of the chart below reflects the nearest-dated expiration, and the right side reflects the implied volatility of options expiring in ~one year. Going into earnings, a strangle swap is one way to take advantage of this dynamic. This involves purchasing the lower implied volatility, longer-dated options, and selling nearer-dated options to capitalize on accelerated decay (“theta”). The current implied move for Crown Holdings is about $5 higher or lower by the end of next week, so in this example, I’m selecting strikes approximately that distance from the current share price. The $87.50 strike for the put calendar portion of the trade, and the 97.5 strike for the call calendar portion. The trade example : Sell Oct 18 $87.50 Put Buy Apr 17 $87.50 Put Sell Oct 18 $97.50 Call Buy Apr 17 $97.50 Call DISCLOSURES: (None) All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
