Five free agents Mets will sign in offseason

The 2024 Mets surprised most experts and analysts. Even the team played most of the season with the motto, “We weren’t supposed to be here.”

That idea goes out the window in 2025. These aren’t your typical Mets and the expectations for this team are now postseason or bust. Should they accomplish this feat, it would only be the third time in franchise history that they make the playoffs in consecutive seasons.

And even that would be a disappointment for Mets owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns. With the amount of money Cohen is willing to pour into this team and Stearns’ ability to find and develop talent, the 2024 team was a good starting point for the organization. Now, it can only get better.

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This offseason fans will be watching the front office more closely than they have in years. Who are the key players they re-sign and what additions will Stearns make to improve the team?

Here are five way-too-early predictions:

RE-SIGN

While these won’t be the only players-turned-free-agents the Mets will re-sign, these two players will be the team’s main targets to keep this offseason. We begin with…

Pete Alonso, 1B

Alonso’s desire to be a “lifelong Met” hasn’t wavered. Since the first day he reported to spring training back in February, when he first met with media members, he expressed wanting to remain in orange and blue for life.

After Sunday’s NLCS Game 6 loss, Alonso reiterated his love for Queens.

“I’ve loved being a New York Met,” Alonso said, fighting back emotions. “I love representing the city of New York, I love representing Queens. This has really been special.”

The problem has been that his agent has floated around a price tag — $200 million, according to a June report by USA TODAY’s Bob Nightengale — that’s just too high when compared to first basemen of his caliber.

At that price point, Alonso would far exceed his comps. Players like the Braves’ Matt Olson, who signed an 8-year, $168 million ($21 million AAV) in 2022, and the Dodgers’ Freddie Freeman, who signed for six years, $162 million ($27 million AAV) that same year.

Certainly, there will be a price adjustment three seasons after Olson and Freeman signed. But $200 million is just too much for Alonso at this time.

His performance this season and general downward trend don’t warrant that type of payday. In 2024, Alonso slashed .240/.329/.459 with 34 home runs and 88 RBIs, low production by his standard.

Still, Alonso, a member of the Mets’ core, is a valuable commodity in today’s and deserves to be a forever Met.

Prediction: Alonso signs a 7-year deal with the Mets worth $175 million ($25 million AAV).

Sean Manaea, SP

After a disappointing outing in Game 6 of the NLCS, an emotional Manaea said that he’d “love to be back” with the Mets next season. His actions throughout the year, inside and out of the clubhouse, has shown that Queens is his preferred place to play.

As a starter, Manaea reinvented himself, adopting a more horizontal arm slot thanks to Braves ace Chris Sale. During an 11-game stretch in August and September with his new look, the left-hander elevated his game to a new level, posting a 2.63 ERA with a 0.76 WHIP and 82 strikeouts in that span.

When away from the mound, he’s lending his time to surprise Mr. and Mrs. Met’s Kids Club members, leading the kids through a series of stretches. He also rides the subway to and from his apartment and enjoys long walks in the City.

Manaea signed a two-year, $28 million deal last winter. But the contract includes a player option he will likely exercise after the ascending season he enjoyed.

This season, Manaea made 32 starts, tied for a career-high, and posted a 3.47 ERA with 184 strikeouts in 181 2/3 innings.

Prediction: Manaea signs a 3-year deal worth $45 million to stay with the Mets. The contract might include clauses that trigger opt-outs and/or more money.

THE BIG SPLASH

While the expectation is that the Mets will go hard for Yankees right fielder Juan Soto, the reality is that there isn’t room for him on this roster, which is filled with corner outfielders. The Mets will certainly be in play for Soto, but they’ll pivot for a move that makes more sense for them at this time.

Corbin Burnes, SP

If not for Manaea’s turn as a true ace in the final two months of the season, the Mets would have gone the entire 2024 season without a real No. 1 starter. That changes next season when Stearns reunites with his ace from his days with the Brewers, Corbin Burnes.

Burnes will be the most sought-after pitching target this offseason in MLB. After losing out on both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto last winter, Cohen and Stearns won’t let Burnes get away this winter.

The 30-year-old right-hander is a rare breed in today’s game. He’s made at least 32 starts in his last three consecutive seasons. And since becoming a starter in 2021, has been one of baseball’s best pitchers — his 19.2 fWAR trails only Phillies starter Zack Wheeler’s 22.7 fWAR during that span.

In 32 starts with the Orioles last season, in a tough division, Burnes went 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 181 strikeouts.

Prediction: Burns will sign a 6-year, $201 million deal with the Mets.

CALL TO THE PEN

Finally, one of Stearns’ staples is his ability to build a bullpen. He proved it in 2024 when he reassembled the Mets’ pen after the Jorge López debacle at the end of May.

After that, he rejiggered the bullpen, keeping only two arms from the team’s opening-day roster: Adam Ottavino and Edwin Díaz. This offseason, Stearns will secure at least two arms in free agency.

Jeff Hoffman, RHP

In his last two seasons with the Phillies, Hoffman reinvented himself into one of baseball’s elite relievers. In 122 appearances in that span, he’s pitched to a 2.28 ERA, striking out 158 batters in 118 2/3 innings. In seven seasons before that, he never posted an ERA below 3.83, averaging 5.68 ERA.

Hoffman has increased the use of his four-seam fastball and began throwing a sinker, a staple for Stearns’ Mets, in 2023. He has strikeout ability but isn’t afraid to pitch to contact, which the Mets account for with their up-the-middle defense.

The 31-year-old right-hander will pair well with Díaz at the back of the bullpen, shortening games for the Mets.

Prediction: Hoffman signs a 2-year, $12.5 million deal with the Mets.

Caleb Ferguson, RHP

Ferguson, 28, is more of a reclamation project, something the Mets specialized in this season. He features a repertoire of four pitches, introducing a slurve and a sinker this season. Mets pitching coach Jeremy Hefner should be able to simplify his arsenal, making him a viable option out of the bullpen.

In 62 appearances last season, Ferguson posted a 4.64 ERA with 67 strikeouts in 54 1/3 innings. His season can be broken down into two parts since he played with two teams.

With the Yankees, he posted a 5.13 ERA in 42 appearances. After he was traded to the Astros at the trade deadline, he settled into a more reliable option, posting a 3.86 ERA in 20 appearances.

Prediction: Ferguson signs a 1-year, $1.5 million deal with the Mets.